• The Biden administration is working to prevent an escalation of violence between Iran and Israel, fearing that an Iranian attack on Israel may be imminent following recent military activities and provocations.
• U.S. officials are engaged in intense diplomacy to avoid further escalation and are deploying military assets to the region, while Israel’s recent actions against Tehran and Hezbollah could jeopardize ongoing cease-fire efforts in Gaza.
• Western officials believe that neither Tehran, Hezbollah, nor Israel desires an all-out war, but the situation remains volatile, with the risk of hostilities escalating.

The Biden administration is making a final effort to create peace with Tehran while striving to keep cease-fire talks alive. The administration fears that a potential Iranian attack on Israel may be imminent. Last week, American reconnaissance detected Iran moving missile launchers and conducting military drills, which could indicate preparations for an attack. Iran may be seeking to retaliate against Israel following the assassination of senior Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31st.

U.S. intelligence agents are also concerned that an Iranian assault could be accompanied by airstrikes from Hezbollah, the Lebanese militia, and other Tehran-backed proxies in an attempt to overwhelm Israeli defenses. Hezbollah has been considering its response to an Israeli airstrike in Beirut last month that killed a high-ranking commander.

In April, Iran attacked Israel in response to the killing of a senior paramilitary commander and other Iranian officers in Damascus, Syria. On April 13, over 100 Iranian ballistic missiles were launched at Israel, accompanied by Iranian cruise missiles and a swarm of drones, timed to arrive simultaneously with the ballistic missiles. The scale of Iran’s first direct attack on Israel matched the most severe projections of U.S. intelligence agencies.

Israel and U.S. forces intercepted most of the Iranian drones and missiles, aided by intelligence quietly shared by Arab countries. These nations also opened their airspace to warplanes, shared radar tracking information, and provided their own forces to assist. This collective defense effort was the culmination of a decades-old U.S. goal to forge closer military ties between Israel and its long-standing Arab adversaries to counter the growing threat from Tehran.

The U.S. now faces the challenge of defending Israel from another potential Iranian attack if deterrence fails, while also working to restore stability in the region. Israel’s aggressive actions against Tehran and Hezbollah could undermine Biden’s faltering push for a Gaza cease-fire, a central element of his Middle East diplomacy and foreign policy legacy. Israel did not provide the Biden administration with advanced notice of these recent attacks.

Top U.S. officials are urging Tehran to avoid further escalation. “We are engaged in intense diplomacy pretty much around the clock with a very simple message: All parties must refrain from escalation,” said Secretary of State Antony Blinken. “It’s also critical that we break this cycle by reaching a cease-fire in Gaza.”

Western officials believe that Tehran, Hezbollah, and Israel do not seek an all-out war, though they acknowledge that any military operation carries the risk of escalating hostilities. The Biden administration is deploying a squadron of F-22 jet fighters and an aircraft carrier strike group to the region. General Erik Kurilla, the head of U.S. Central Command, is currently in Israel to help prepare for any potential attacks. The threat of escalation has likely delayed the push for a cease-fire, but Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar might be more open to cessation if the Israeli military continues to apply pressure in Gaza.