When the Meiji Restoration ended the power of Japan’s shogunate and samurai in 1868, Emperor Meiji moved the capital to Tokyo, literally the “Eastern Capital.” Tokyo’s Chiyoda ward may as well be the true capital, containing the Imperial Palace, Prime Minister’s residence, legislature, supreme court, national agencies, and government ministries. Yet any Tokyoite will say that the city’s cultural capital is Shibuya. Filled with every kind of legal and semi-legal entertainment, it is home to Shibuya Sky, an observation deck where tourists enjoy 360° views from the 46th floor. Visitors who walk to the southwest side clearly see Mount Fuji, about 130 km away. From the northeast corner no visitor will see the Tokai nuclear power plant, Japan’s first, also some 130 km away, but nuclear talk is in the air. With Japan currently undertaking two attention grabbing nuclear endeavors, nuclear is generating a lot of conversation among foreigners and locals in Tokyo.

The bigger news item now is Japan’s plan to begin releasing treated wastewater from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant into the ocean. Tokyo Electric Power Company, TEPCO, has been using water to cool the damaged reactors since 2011, treating it to remove radiation, and storing the water in vast tanks. After 12 years TEPCO has nearly run out of room. The controversy has centered on tritium, an isotope of hydrogen that extant technology cannot remove from water. China, South Korean, and the Pacific Island Forum have objected to Japan’s planned release, arguing that the wastewater might contaminate the ocean. However, the International Atomic Energy Agency, IAEA, has found that the wastewater is well within guidelines, and that Japan is properly following all procedures to release the water. Whether contrived or genuine, much of the controversy has centered on misunderstandings of what tritium is. Criticisms of Japan’s release have generally not made clear that tritium is radioactive but it is not radiation, and have not acknowledged how much tritium Japan will release compared with how much tritium other facilities around the world release annually. 

TEPCO plans to release roughly 0.022 Petabecquerel (Pbq) worth of tritium radiation per year. One thousand Pbq equals 1 TBq. The US, Canada, United Kingdom, China, France, and South Korea, among others, release scores of TBq into the ocean annually. Canada releases thousands, and France tens of thousands. China and South Korea undoubtedly know that the Fukushima release is vastly smaller than their own releases, but must contend with domestic politics. The fact that no tritium-based issues have ever developed around the areas of Canada’s and France’s wastewater releases emphasize the safety of Japan’s small release. South Korea tacitly acknowledged this, with its government assenting to Japan’s plan in early July after the IAEA issued its final approval of TEPCO’s plan.

The other nuclear item buzzing around Tokyo since last year is Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s plan, with the backing of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, LDP, to restart Japan’s fleet of nuclear reactors and to open new ones. After the Fukushima Daiichi meltdown, government and public opinion turned sharply against nuclear power, and no reactor restarted until 2015. Nuclear power provided 25% of the country’s electricity in 2010, but today provides less than 6%. Coal and gas each provided about a quarter of the nation’s electricity in 2010 while today each supplies about a third. Beyond greenhouse gasses, coal, natural gas, and oil (oil provides over a third of Japan’s total power) represent costly imports, given that Japan produces almost no fossil fuels. TEPCO and other utilities have announced massive increases in electricity prices over the past year, as inflation and the absence of nuclear power raise their costs.

Restarting Japan’s inactive nuclear reactors – which have all been maintained, at great expense, since 2011 – is a slow process, with the already arduous inspection process made even stricter after 2011. Recognizing the cost of closing reactors nearing the end of their lifespans, the LDP also approved lengthening the allowed lifespan of reactors to at least sixty years, not counting inspection time, which can last for many years over the course of six decades. For its new reactors Japan is looking into both large-scale reactors and small modular reactors, SMRs. 

Having set a goal for Japan to be carbon neutral by 2050, Kishida’s government is encouraging an all-of-the-above clean energy approach. Less than 1% of the nation’s electricity comes from wind but Japan – with arguably the world’s sixth longest coastline – has massive offshore wind potential. Several Japanese companies are working together on a demonstration of so-called vertical axis turbines. Instead of incredibly long blades spinning around a horizontal axis like a pinwheel, these turbines use a greater number of short blades spinning around a vertical axis.

Kishida’s government is also trying to hot up the geothermal industry, signing an agreement with America to collaborate on geothermal research. Geothermal could supply over a tenth of national electricity, or 23 large nuclear reactors’ worth, but currently provides only 0.3%. While geology and topography pose some challenges, the biggest hurdle is Japan’s onsen industry, whose NIMBYs allege that geothermal plants would disrupt the pools below the 130 million tourists per year industry. In truth, geothermal wells access much deeper water than onsens, and new supercritical geothermal technology digs far deeper still.

Though NIMBYs may also attempt to slow down the restart of Japan’s nuclear reactors, the fact that they are already built eliminates the legal avenues through which they could try to block nuclear’s return. While reaching 10% of electricity with geothermal would require hundreds, if not thousands, of geothermal plants, Japan achieved its 25% nuclear electricity with only 33 reactors, at plants that often have room for additional reactors.

The passage of time, the rise in electricity prices, and growing climate concerns have led to a resurgence in support for nuclear power among Japanese, surpassing 60% last year. In 2012 only 4% of Japanese thought that nuclear power use should increase. Nuclear’s rehabilitation may have been expedited by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which put energy dependence into the spotlight – Japan imports roughly a third of its fossil fuel products from each of Asia, America, and the Middle East. 

With support from Kishida, the LDP, and utilities, nuclear’s support may continue to fare well with the public, especially if the press adds support. A few hundred meters from Shibuya Sky is a statue of Hachiko, a dog who walked to and from Shibuya station every day for ten years waiting for his human. While he eventually became a beloved resident of the square after an article was published about him, with many thousands of visitors over the years, some vendors initially viewed him as a nuisance and children as a dog to abuse. The underdog prevailed: hundreds still gather at the statue every year on the day of his death, 88 years later, and a huge celebration is planned for this year, the 100th anniversary of his birth. Nuclear power will never be as popular as Hachiko, but the reactors that Japan plans today may still be around in 88 years.