•  Russia has updated its nuclear doctrine, allowing for nuclear strikes in response to conventional attacks that threaten its sovereignty or territorial integrity, marking a significant lowering of the threshold for nuclear engagement.
• The decree follows reports of Ukraine using U.S.-made ATACMS missiles to strike within Russia, escalating tensions and signaling a potential new phase in the conflict.
• Kremlin officials emphasize deterrence, while experts warn that the changes heighten the risk of direct confrontation between nuclear powers, drawing parallels to the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has lowered the threshold for using nuclear weapons, expanding the conditions under which such a strike could be justified. The change, announced in a decree on Tuesday, comes amid heightened tensions following reports that Ukraine used U.S.-made ATACMS missiles to target deep within Russian territory. This move marks a significant shift in Russia’s nuclear doctrine and underscores the increasing risks associated with the ongoing conflict.

Previously, Russia’s nuclear policy, as outlined in a 2020 decree, limited the use of nuclear weapons to scenarios involving a nuclear attack or a conventional assault that directly threatened the existence of the Russian state. Under the newly updated doctrine, Russia can now consider deploying nuclear weapons in response to a conventional attack on Russia or its ally Belarus if such an attack creates a critical threat to their sovereignty or territorial integrity. The decree also classifies any attack by a non-nuclear state supported by a nuclear power as a joint assault and deems aggression by one member of a military alliance an attack by the entire bloc.

This doctrinal shift was published just days after U.S. officials indicated that the Biden administration had given Ukraine the green light to use U.S.-made weapons for strikes within Russian territory. Russia has consistently warned that such actions by NATO allies would be interpreted as direct involvement in the war. In response to the recent missile strikes in its Bryansk region, Russia’s defense ministry claimed that air defense systems intercepted most of the missiles, though one caused damage. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov framed the incident as a new phase in the West’s confrontation with Russia, suggesting U.S. personnel and intelligence were integral to the operation. Lavrov emphasized that Russia seeks to avoid nuclear conflict but pointed to the United States as the only country to have used nuclear weapons in war, referencing Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

The updated nuclear policy also expands the criteria for recognizing potential threats. Russia will now consider data suggesting a large-scale assault involving aircraft, cruise missiles, or unmanned drones as evidence of a mass attack. Kremlin officials argue that these changes are intended to reinforce deterrence by making it unequivocally clear that any aggression against Russia or its allies will provoke inevitable retaliation.

This development occurs as the war in Ukraine enters a volatile and potentially decisive phase. Russian forces are advancing at their fastest pace since the conflict’s early days, while Western nations deliberate over how to respond and how the war might end. Analysts liken the current situation to the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, warning that the danger of a direct armed clash between nuclear powers has never been greater. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, underscored the unprecedented nature of the current crisis, stating that the world is navigating “unexplored military and political territory.”

The Kremlin maintains that the updated doctrine is not a signal of aggression but a clarification of its stance on nuclear deterrence. Spokesman Dmitry Peskov described the publication of the decree as timely, emphasizing that nuclear deterrence aims to ensure adversaries understand the inevitability of retaliation in the event of an attack. However, the timing of the announcement—coinciding with reports of U.S.-made missile strikes inside Russia—raises questions about whether the changes are intended as a direct warning to Washington and its allies.

The updated doctrine has had immediate ripple effects beyond the battlefield. Investors reacted strongly to the news, with government bonds and the Japanese yen rallying as safe-haven assets, while global stocks and the euro fell. The Russian rouble, meanwhile, dropped past 100 to the U.S. dollar, reflecting the heightened uncertainty.

As the 1,000th day of the Ukraine war passes, the situation grows increasingly precarious. With the threshold for nuclear engagement lowered and the stakes higher than ever, the conflict has entered what many fear could be its most dangerous phase.