Narendra Modi, head of India’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and prime minister since 2014, has an infrastructure plan. Dozens of them. One of his first, announced just three months after his inauguration, was toilets. A lot of toilets.

In 2014 over half a billion Indians still defecated daily in the open. Many of these people lacked toilets, but many did not, telling researchers that they found public defecation “pleasurable, comfortable, or convenient” or that it “provides them an opportunity to take a morning walk, see their fields and take in the fresh air.” Modi pledged that in five years every Indian would have access to a toilet and, five years and 110 million toilets later, Modi declared his Clean India campaign a success. Yet like many of Modi’s infrastructure plans, including his nuclear plan, progress can be impressively fast yet distressingly behind rich world averages: the World Bank found that as of 2020 15% of Indians still defecate in the open. The progress of Modi’s other plans indicates where India’s energy future, including nuclear, may take it in the next decade. 

India’s energy system both powers its transportation system and increases energy demands. India launched its first high-speed passenger rail service in 2019, has since launched dozens more, and aims for 500 or so by 2027 (although “high-speed” in India is put to shame by high-speed in Europe or China). The rural road network has nearly doubled in length since 2014, and the overall network grew by a quarter. The number of airports has doubled, with the new ones far superior to their predecessors. Air passenger numbers more than doubled during that time, and India’s transportation ministry expects them to triple during the next decade. It helps that India now spends about three times as much on infrastructure (as a share of GDP) as it did before Modi took office, and about twice as much as the US or Europe.

Digital infrastructure growth has been just as impressive. Thirteen times as many Indians have broadband connections now as when Modi took office. The prior government started a biometric digital-ID system, which is now universally used. Modi’s government launched a digital-payments system in 2016, now accounting for three-quarters of digital payments. Indians can now access official documents, including tax documents, certificates, etc., online via a secure digital locker, meaning that the half of Indians who own a smartphone can manage government forms without a computer or leaving their homes.

All this digital and physical infrastructure is powering a growing economy and population and, in turn, growing energy needs. The nation may require as much additional energy by 2040 as the European Union consumes now. The average Indian uses less than a tenth as much energy as an American, and less than a quarter as much as a Chinese, but the figures are rising quickly. India consumed 50% more energy in 2021 than 2011, and three-quarters more electricity. Even as it adds large amounts of coal power, it is trying to increase its use of clean energy. In the past five years renewable energy capacity doubled, but coal represents over half of the country’s energy, and oil another quarter – a combined two-thirds more than in America. 

In electricity the picture is even bleaker, with three-quarters derived from coal, versus one-fifth in the US. The problem is not a dearth of renewables – the 18.5% share of electricity from wind, solar, and hydropower is only slightly below America’s 20.2% – but rather how much more electricity India needs, how little gas it uses (less than a tenth of America’s share), and how few nuclear reactors it has. Per government estimates, nuclear power produces only about 3% of the country’s electricity, versus a fifth in the US or 70% in France.

To remedy the issue, Modi’s government has pledged large investments in renewables and in nuclear energy. Solar capacity is 50 times higher now than a decade ago, equivalent to 63 standard nuclear reactors. The bigger thrust will come from nuclear power, which the government aims to triple between now and 2031. Ten reactors have been approved, most of which are already under construction. Yet government restrictions may hinder how quickly the nuclear industry may grow. Last month India revealed a proposed policy to allow foreign investment in its nuclear industry for the first time. The country’s ponderous bureaucracy and lack of foreign nuclear investment may contribute to an average reactor construction time of 14 years. India is also lagging behind in public and private support for small modular reactors, SMRs, which hold the promise of faster deployment and lower cost. Other than India’s minister of state calling last year for companies to work with India on SMRs, there has been scant government support, in terms of policy or funding, for SMRs. 

India’s nuclear future is further complicated by Modi’s relationship with America and with Russia. Later this month Modi will meet with President Joe Biden, and will address a joint session of Congress for the second time – a rare honor for any national leader to receive once, much less twice. Yet Modi has refused to join in sanctions against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine, and has stepped up its imports of Russian hydrocarbons. While India’s share of arms imports from Russia fell from 64% to 45% in the last four years, the large majority of its armored vehicles and military planes are Russian-made, as are nearly half of its ships and submarines. With Russia being one of the world’s biggest suppliers of nuclear reactor fuel, and providing oil and gas to India at a discount, it remains unclear whether Modi will favor Western, Asian, or Russian SMRs, or a mix, if he chooses to throw his weight behind them at all.

Despite its issues, India’s economy – and energy needs – will continue to grow. The IMF forecasts that within five years its economy will exceed those of Germany and Japan. Better infrastructure, rapid economic growth, and political talent have made Modi one of the world’s most popular national leaders. While China’s population shrank for the first time last year, India’s growing population overtook China’s this year, and by the end of the century India’s population is expected to be twice the size of China’s. As Europe, America, and other nations become ever warier of empowering China, more business is likely to shift from China to India. That economic growth and the rising threat of climate change-induced sea level rise on India’s coastal population is likely to accelerate the nation’s push towards clean energy, including nuclear power. Unfortunately for India and for global efforts to combat climate change, building even 100 nuclear reactors is far trickier, politically and socially, than building over 100 million toilets. Whether it is easier to convince the public to embrace the reactors or the toilets may depend on just how talented and popular Modi remains.