• The past year has seen extreme weather events, such as Hurricane Beryl, highlighting the impact of climate change, with El Niño and La Niña causing significant global weather disruptions.
• The ENSO cycle, historically predictable, now shows more extreme variations due to climate change, with the strongest recorded El Niño causing severe flooding, droughts, and agricultural disruptions.
• Climate change exacerbates ENSO impacts, intensifying weather patterns and necessitating urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and transition to sustainable energy to mitigate extreme weather.

The past year has been marked by unprecedented weather events, with Hurricane Beryl carving a path of destruction through the Caribbean and Southern regions, underscoring the escalating impact of climate change. The planet’s rising temperatures and shifting weather patterns, influenced by phenomena like La Niña and El Niño, signal that we may be in for more severe weather in the coming months.

El Niño and La Niña are two opposing phases of a climate phenomenon known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which cycles roughly every three to seven years. El Niño is characterized by a significant warming of the Pacific Ocean’s surface waters, while La Niña involves a cooling of these waters. These changes, though seemingly small, can have dramatic effects on global weather patterns.

Historically, the ENSO cycle was somewhat predictable. However, recent years have seen more extreme variations, with El Niño events growing more intense. The most recent El Niño, noted as the strongest ever recorded, has wreaked havoc globally—causing severe flooding and droughts in South America, an intense heatwave in the Southern U.S., and disruptions to agriculture in Africa, leading to food shortages.

As El Niño fades, attention turns to La Niña, which is expected to emerge in the coming months. While La Niña could alleviate some of the extreme impacts caused by El Niño, it also brings its own set of challenges. Historically, La Niña has been linked to an increase in hurricane activity, a troubling prospect given the devastation already experienced from storms like Hurricane Beryl.

According to the Weather Company, the 2024 hurricane season is projected to be particularly active, with 24 named storms expected—significantly higher than the average of 14. Of these, six are anticipated to reach Category 3 strength or higher, exacerbating the risks faced by vulnerable communities.

The interaction between ENSO phases and climate change complicates weather predictions. Today’s La Niña and El Niño events are occurring against a backdrop of rising global temperatures and increased greenhouse gas emissions. This means that a cooler La Niña year is now warmer than an El Niño year from two decades ago, intensifying the potential for extreme weather.

Climate change has not only altered the natural ENSO cycle but also magnified its impacts, creating a volatile mix of extreme weather events. The combination of greenhouse gas emissions and natural climate variability is driving more severe weather patterns, from heatwaves to intense storms.

Addressing the root causes of climate change is crucial in mitigating its impacts. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and transitioning to sustainable energy sources, such as nuclear or renewable energy, are essential steps in lessening the severity of weather extremes. While the ENSO cycle remains an inevitable part of our climate system, proactive measures can help manage its impacts and protect communities around the world.

As we brace for another potentially turbulent weather season, understanding and adapting to these changes is more critical than ever. The challenges posed by ENSO and climate change demand a concerted effort to safeguard our environment and future.